Publication:

Interpreting India's below-replacement fertility: evidence from Sample Registration System and National Family Health Survey on tempo effects and age-structural change

Background Whether India's below-replacement period total fertility rate (TFR) reflects genuine quantum decline or partly reflects tempo distortion from delayed childbearing has not been systematically assessed using nationally representative data. Sample Registration System (SRS) 2023 reports a national TFR of 1.9 and National Family Health Survey-6 (NFHS-6) (2023-24) reports 2.0.

Methods This study integrates three complementary approaches using SRS 2023, NFHS-5 (2019–21), and NFHS-6 (2023–24) data: age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) redistribution across age groups (2011–13 to 2021–23); retrospective period-specific fertility trends from NFHS-5 birth histories; and an illustrative application of the Bongaarts–Feeney tempo-adjustment framework.

Results ASFR fell 63.1% among women aged 15–19 and 42.5% among those aged 20–24 between 2011–13 and 2021–23, while it rose 22.7–91.3% across the 30–49 age range; the modal fertility age shifted from 20–24 to 25–29 years. An illustrative Bongaarts–Feeney adjustment (annual r ≈0.0076) yields TFR≈1.91 for 2023, only modestly above the observed period TFR of 1.9. TFR has been stable between NFHS-5 (1.99) and NFHS-6 (2.0).

Conclusions India's recent fertility decline is accompanied by substantial postponement of childbearing, with fertility shifting from younger to older age groups. Although the illustrative Bongaarts–Feeney adjustment suggests only a modest national tempo correction, period TFR should be interpreted alongside age-specific and cumulative fertility measures before being treated as definitive evidence of declining completed family size.