Publication:

Time series analysis of dengue cases reporting to a tertiary care hospital

Background Dengue fever is a major public health problem, the concern is high as the disease is closely related to climate change.

Methods This was a retrospective study, conducted for 1 year in a tertiary care hospital in the city of Mumbai. Data of Dengue cases and climate for the city of Mumbai between 2011 and 2015 were obtained. Data was analysed using SPSS- time series analysis and forecasting model.

Results 33% cases belonged to the 21-30 years, proportion of men affected were more than women. A seasonal distribution of cases was observed. A strong correlation was noted between the total number of cases reported and (a) mean monthly rainfall and (b) number of days of rainfall. ARIMA model was used for forecasting.

Conclusions The trend analysis along with forecasting model helps in being prepared for the year ahead.