Publication:

Prediction of 10 years risk of cardiovascular disease among adults aged 30-49 years residing in South Kolkata, West Bengal

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among 30-49 years i.e. 2nd and 3rd decade of adulthood who are vulnerable to utmost stress and strain of life. This study was conducted to predict the ten years risk of cardiovascular disease and calculate vascular age of adults aged 30-49 years.

Methods This community based, observational, cross-sectional study was done from August-October’17 among 182 individuals aged 30-49 years residing in South Kolkata, West Bengal. Data collection was done using a structured questionnaire along with B.P. measurement and lipid profile test. ‘Framingham heart study CVD risk calculator online version’ was used to calculate CVD risk and vascular age. Participants with known CVD, pregnancy were excluded from the study. Data was analyzed using SPSS software version 16.0 and descriptive statistics were employed to express results through appropriate tables and figures.

Results The mean ten years predicted CVD risk of the study subjects was 5.9%±5.3%, 63.7% participants had low risk of CVD and only 3.9% had high risk. CVD risk is well associated with increasing age, male gender, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia and use of tobacco. The mean vascular age (46.5±6.1 years) was much higher than the actual mean biological age (39.1±15.0 years) of the participants. Almost 2/3rd of study subjects had more vascular age than their actual biological age.

Conclusions Further studies are required to prove the appropriateness of this online calculator and to establish vascular age as an alternate modality for prediction of CVD related events.