Publication:

Predictors of mortality in adult patients with dengue: a study from South India

Background Dengue is one of the important causes of acute febrile illnesses in India. Dengue can be a fatal disease, however there are no reliable markers which can predict mortality among these patients.

Methods A prospective cross sectional study was done in patients who were admitted to a tertiary care hospital with features of dengue fever. A total of 364 patients with IgM dengue serology positive were included in the study. Relevant clinical and laboratory parameters were collected from all patients. Association between clinico-laboratory parameters with mortality was studied using appropriate statistical methods.

Results Among the 364 patients recruited in this study, 14 (3.85%) patients died. Mortality among patients with age group 18-40 years was 2.04%, in patients aged above 40 years was 7.56%. Mortality among patients with hypotension was 42.42% (14 out of 33), bleeding manifestations was 15.38% (8/52), platelets 200 was 13.04% (6/46), AST>200 was 12.34% (10/81), prolonged prothrombin time was 60%(12/20), renal failure was 28%(14/50), encephalopathy was 31.57% (6/19), multi organ dysfunction syndrome(MODS) was 43.33% (13/30), acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was 45.45% (5/11), pleural effusion was 7.5% (6/80).

Conclusions The overall mortality in the present study was 3.85%. Following variables were associated with increased risk of death among the dengue patients: Age >40 years, presence of hypotension, platelets 200U/L, AST>200U/L, prolonged prothrombin time, presence of renal failure, encephalopathy, MODS, ARDS and bleeding tendency (p value <0.05). Early identification of factors associated with mortality can help to make appropriate decision on care required.