Publication:

Development of a nomogram for predicting recurrence in breast cancer patients using a machine learning method

Background Current breast cancer (BC) recurrence models do not account for treatment modalities, one of the strongest prognostic factors. This analysis was conducted to apply machine learning (ML) algorithm to identify BC patients at a higher recurrence risk.

Methods It is based on a downloadable BC Wisconsin dataset, containing 9 independent (socio-demographic, tumor and treatment-related) and a dependent (recurrence) variable(s). Using training dataset (70% sample), a multivariate LR model was developed using univariate analysis identified variables (p<0.2). The model performance was assessed on test dataset (remaining 30%) using standard statistical measures. A nomogram was developed using model identified variables (p<0.05), and its cut-off score categorized BC patients into a high/low recurrence risk.

Results 277 patients (recurrence (n=81)) were included. In univariate analysis, tumor size (p=0.002), invasive nodes number (p<0.001), node capsule (p<0.001), degree of malignancy (p<0.001) and irradiation (p<0.001) were associated with recurrence. After balancing, both groups included 243 patients. Using training dataset (n=342), invasive nodes (p<0.05), degree of malignancy (p<0.05) and irradiation (p=0.0009) were significant in a multivariate model. The model’s accuracy and area under curve (AUC) were 74% (66-81%) and 0.74 (0.67-0.81), respectively in the test dataset (n=144). The nomogram’s cut-off score of 55 has an AUC of 0.73 (0.66-0.80) for recurrence prediction, indicative fair discriminating ability.

Conclusions The developed nomogram can be a valuable tool in guiding appropriate treatment based on recurrence risk. ML and data mining methods can be the future of clinical decision process.