Publication:

Time series analysis of chickenpox cases admitted in infectious disease hospital in a metropolitan city, Mumbai, India

Background Chickenpox is a major public health problem; the concern is high as the disease is closely related to climate change.

Methods This was a retrospective study, conducted for 1 year in an infectious disease hospital in a metropolitan city. Data of chickenpox cases of Mumbai between 2009 to 2018 were obtained. Data was analysed using SPSS-time series analysis and forecasting model.

Results 88% cases belonged to the 21-40 years, proportion of men affected were more than women. A seasonal distribution of cases was observed. Winter’s multiplicative model was used for forecasting.

Conclusions The trend analysis along with forecasting model helps in being prepared for the year ahead.