Publication:

Modelling of COVID-19 positive cases at tertiary care hospital of Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh using regression models

Background Corona viruses signify a most important group of viruses mostly affecting human beings. It is a respiratory infection with common signs and symptoms of fever, cough, sore throat, headache, and loss of taste, loss of smell, respiratory symptoms. In India till 31st December 2020, the total number of confirmed cases were 1,02,86,310; with active number of cases were 2,52,699 number of cases recovered were 98,81,732 while number of deaths were 1,49,018. Objective of the study was to find the quadratic and cubic model of COVID-19 positive cases at tertiary care hospital of Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh.

Methods A hospital based study was carried out with confirmed covid-19 cases admitted to Government Medical College Banda, UP. 1486 cases have been taken from the period of 1st April 2020 up to 31st December 2020.

Results In this study maximum cases (30.14%) belongs to the age group of 30-45 years. Male population is more than females in all districts. In this study the cubic model shows the best fit with the highest R-square value. Difference in the proportion in each age group (p value<0.001) and sign and symptoms (p value < 0.001) were statistically significant.

Conclusions The current study focused on presenting trends in the Bundelkhand region, Uttar Pradesh with respect to the outbreak of COVID-19. The spread of COVID-19 cases follow cubic model. We conclude that cases of COVID-19 will decline in the coming days heading towards the reduction in daily number of cases.