Publication:

Predictive factors for the mortality of acute pancreatitis at the time of admission

Background Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially life-threatening condition with an unpredictable course. Prognosis is influenced by organ failure and secondary infections related to pancreatic necrosis. Identifying mortality predictors at the time of admission can guide management and improve outcomes. This study aimed to examine clinical, laboratory, and demographic factors associated with mortality in AP patients to identify early predictors of adverse outcomes.

Methods A prospective observational study was conducted at Sri Aurobindo Medical College and Hospital, Indore, from September 2022 to February 2024, involving 174 patients with acute pancreatitis confirmed by clinical symptoms, elevated serum lipase/amylase levels, and CT imaging. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected, and binary logistic regression was used to identify mortality predictors. A p value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results The cohort included 135 males (77.6%) and 39 females (22.4%), with the largest age group being 21-40 years. The overall mortality rate was 12.1%. A significant association was found between age and mortality, with the highest mortality rate (33.3%) in patients over 60 years. Serum albumin levels were significantly lower in deceased patients (p=0.001). No significant correlations were found between mortality and factors such as serum amylase, lipase, liver enzymes, or sex. Binary logistic regression confirmed age as the only independent predictor of mortality, with a 1.371 increase in mortality odds per additional year of age.

Conclusions The cohort included 135 males (77.6%) and 39 females (22.4%), with the largest age group being 21-40 years. The overall mortality rate was 12.1%. A significant association was found between age and mortality, with the highest mortality rate (33.3%) in patients over 60 years. Serum albumin levels were significantly lower in deceased patients (p=0.001). No significant correlations were found between mortality and factors such as serum amylase, lipase, liver enzymes, or sex. Binary logistic regression confirmed age as the only independent predictor of mortality, with a 1.371 increase in mortality odds per additional year of age.