Publication:

Comparing WHO C-Model generated C-Section probabilities to actual delivery outcomes in a tertiary care centre

Background A model which takes into account several relevant factors and gives the probability of C-Section in a woman would have the advantage of preparing for such an event. The identification of women at high risk of C-Section (>50% risk) would provide the opportunity for understanding risks involved in pursuing a vaginal delivery whereas if the risk of C-Section was less ( 50% probability, giving the model a sensitivity of 14.33%, specificity of 98.8%, positive predictive value of 90% and negative predictive value of 60.56%. Robson’s Groups 5 and 3 demonstrated the greatest overuse of C-Sections.

Conclusions The WHO Model when applied to this centre showed a high positive predictive value for C-Sections but the negative predictive value or the ability to correctly predict a vaginal delivery was much less.